Let’s look at the harvest numbers to see where the hunter success has shifted. Simply by sticking closer to home, hunters may be able to experience increased success the farther south and east in the state they may live. The 25 percent of the state’s counties that had increased harvests for 2007 included Duplin, 19 percent (an increase of two birds); Edgecombe, 25 percent (31); Franklin, 13 percent (16); Gaston, 10 percent (4); Green, 5 percent (1); Hoke, 14 percent (2); Hyde, 28 percent (5); Iredell, 4 percent (3); Johnston, 13 percent (2); Lenoir, 16 percent (7); Martin, 30 percent (12); Moore, no change, Nash, 70 percent (7); New Hanover, unchanged, Pamlico, 83 percent (19); Pender County, unchanged, (led the state in Youth Turkey Hunt day with 14 birds); Pitt, 19 percent (14); Rowan, 4 percent (7); Union, 5 percent (1); Wilson, 9 percent (2); Yancey, 6 percent (8); Columbus, 9 percent (14); Cabarrus, unchanged, Brunswick, 10 percent (7).

The other 75 percent of the counties saw harvest decreases and the biggest losers were counties that were former super producers like Alleghany, where the harvest decreased by 25 percent (62 birds).

In the 2006 summer brood survey report, the mountains suffered the greatest, with a poult-per-hen ratio of 1.9. In the Piedmont, the count was 2.1 and at the coast, it was 2.0. That will likely also translate into a reduced number of 2-year-old gobblers in the mountain counties in 2008.

Counties experiencing declines in harvests of 25 percent or

more included: Alamance, 39 percent (a decline of 40 birds); Anson, 28 percent (58); Caldwell, 25 percent (28); Bertie, 16 percent (47); Camden, 26 percent (12); Caswell, 27 percent (107); Cumberland, 36 percent (16); Durham, 32 percent (32); Guilford, 43 percent (49); Henderson, 26 percent (19); Macon, 33 percent (42); Mecklenburg, 43 percent (4); Orange, 26 percent (51); Person, 26 percent (74); Randolph, 34 percent (33); Richmond, 29 percent (37); Rutherford, 28 percent (77); Scotland, 37 percent (15); Swain, 46 percent (27); Warren, 36 percent (57); Wayne, 29 percent (6); Wilkes, 30 percent (93).

Many other traditional counties also suffered big drops in harvest numbers, but the statistical decline was less than 25 percent. For example, the Granville County harvest dropped 57 birds, but it’s only a 16 percent decline. Halifax County’s harvest also dropped 57 birds for a 16 percent decline. Those are the types of counties that seem to be suffering from poor reproduction or being subjected to a reduction in hunting pressure.

In some of the counties, the long-term affects of poor reproduction could be that as older hens suffer natural mortality, there are no younger hens to replace them, and the population could begin to decline or already may be falling off.

“Some areas may have already suffered a population decline,” Sawyer said. “But the keys to a continued good harvest are probably a shuffling of hunter effort to counties closer to home to offset poor recruitment in traditional areas. In counties where we used to hit the birds hard, we didn’t have the number of birds we used to and it’s been that way for the last three years. In Wilkes County, the turkey hunting is closely tied to reproductive rates, compared with other areas where turkeys were recently absent or scarce and are not present. Hunters don’t have to travel anymore to hunt in those traditional areas if they find new opportunities closer to home.

“But looking at the big picture without the benefit of having the brood survey data compiled at this time, we seem to have had a fair number of poults, with the exception of the Blue Ridge, where we had snow on Easter weekend. The closest I can come to a prediction is to say we will have a similar turkey season in 2008 to what we had in 2007.”